Falcons vs Buccaneers — Week 15, 2025

What really happened

Final: Falcons 29, Buccaneers 28. Falcons won 29-28 — the drive scored.

Falcons ball, down 2 — a field goal wins it. At their own 30, 1:49 on the clock, no timeouts left.

nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 33.3% for Falcons. Our model starts at 37.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.

The real drive, snap by snap

1. (1:49) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass deep right to 87-D.Sills pushed ob at ATL 47 for 17 yards (29-C.Izien).
2. (1:44) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins sacked at ATL 39 for -8 yards (5-H.Reddick). FUMBLES (5-H.Reddick) [5-H.Reddick], and recovers at ATL 39.
3. (1:24) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass incomplete deep middle to 1-D.Mooney.
4. (1:20) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short right to 8-K.Pitts to ATL 43 for 14 yards (22-K.Vildor; 45-D.Jones).
5. (:49) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass deep right to 87-D.Sills to TB 36 for 21 yards (31-A.Winfield).
6. (:29) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short left to 1-D.Mooney pushed ob at TB 25 for 6 yards (35-J.Dean).
7. (:24) (Shotgun) 7-B.Robinson left tackle to TB 25 for no gain (45-D.Jones).
8. (:05) (No Huddle) 18-K.Cousins spiked the ball to stop the clock.
9. (:04) 45-Z.Gonzalez 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

The opening call, by win probability

At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+2.18 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.80 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.

This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.