Titans vs Cardinals — Week 5, 2025
The Titans took over trailing 21-19 with 1:53 left, 1st & 10 at their own 18, 1 timeout in hand, against the Cardinals.
What really happened
Final: Titans 22, Cardinals 21. Titans won 22-21 — the drive scored.
Titans ball, down 2 — a field goal wins it. At their own 18, 1:53 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 33.0% for Titans. Our model starts at 33.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:53) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short right to 20-T.Pollard pushed ob at TEN 21 for 3 yards (36-K.Crawford).
- (1:47) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short right to 20-T.Pollard to TEN 25 for 4 yards (0-W.Johnson).
- (1:19) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short left to 84-G.Helm to TEN 31 for 6 yards (3-B.Baker).
- (:56) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass incomplete short left to 0-C.Ridley.
- (:52) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short middle to 85-C.Okonkwo to TEN 47 for 16 yards (3-B.Baker).
- (:32) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass deep right to 0-C.Ridley ran ob at ARI 15 for 38 yards.
- (:26) 20-T.Pollard right tackle to ARI 4 for 11 yards (2-Ma.Wilson; 27-A.Davis-Gaither). ARI-34-J.Thompson was injured during the play.
- (:19) 1-C.Ward kneels to ARI 7 for -3 yards.
- (:16) 1-C.Ward kneels to ARI 9 for -2 yards. ** Injury Update: ARI-34-J.Thompson has returned to the game.
- (:14) 1-C.Ward kneels to ARI 11 for -2 yards.
- (:03) 6-J.Slye 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.52 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.67 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.52 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.18 pts |
| QB keep | +1.08 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.02 pts |
| Play action | +0.53 pts |
| Deep post | +0.32 pts |
| Quick out | +0.20 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.09 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.23 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.27 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.39 pts |
| Outside run | -0.73 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.84 pts |
| QB sneak | -1.12 pts |
| Inside run | -1.57 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.84 pts |
| Spike it | -2.67 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.