Giants vs Chargers — Week 4, 2025
The Giants took over leading 21-18 with 2:52 left, 1st & 10 at their own 26, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Chargers.
What really happened
Final: Giants 21, Chargers 18. Giants won 21-18 — the drive turned it over.
Giants ball, up 3 — a field goal forces them to score a touchdown. At their own 26, 2:52 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 78.5% for Giants. Our model starts at 79.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:48) (Shotgun) 44-C.Skattebo up the middle to NYG 34 for 3 yards (90-T.Tart).
- (2:42) (Shotgun) 44-C.Skattebo right tackle to NYG 31 for -3 yards (96-N.Jones, 45-T.Tuipulotu).
- (2:38) (Shotgun) 6-J.Dart pass short middle to 84-T.Johnson to NYG 41 for 10 yards (0-D.Henley).
- (2:34) 44-C.Skattebo left guard to NYG 46 for 5 yards (43-T.Dye).
- (2:00) 44-C.Skattebo left guard to NYG 46 for no gain (45-T.Tuipulotu; 96-N.Jones).
- (1:14) 44-C.Skattebo right tackle to NYG 47 for 1 yard (96-N.Jones).
- (:31) 12-J.Gillan punts 40 yards to LAC 13, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 29-T.Still to LAC 16 for 3 yards (85-C.Manhertz).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.63 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-8.47 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.63 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.44 pts |
| Outside run | -0.04 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.14 pts |
| Quick out | -0.20 pts |
| QB keep | -0.27 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.29 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.37 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.43 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.62 pts |
| Inside run | -0.65 pts |
| Play action | -0.99 pts |
| Curl route | -1.15 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.47 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.31 pts |
| End-around | -3.70 pts |
| Deep corner | -3.96 pts |
| Deep post | -5.68 pts |
| Receiver pass | -6.84 pts |
| Flea flicker | -8.47 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.