Ravens vs Steelers — Week 14, 2025
The Ravens took over trailing 27-22 with 1:56 left, 1st & 10 at their own 26, 1 timeout in hand, against the Steelers.
What really happened
Final: Ravens 22, Steelers 27. Steelers won 27-22 — the drive time expired.
Ravens ball, down 5 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 26, 1:56 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 24.7% for Ravens. Our model starts at 14.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:52) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 26-R.Ali to BAL 22 for 6 yards (41-P.Wilson).
- (1:25) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 4-Z.Flowers to BAL 26 for 4 yards (6-P.Queen; 42-J.Pierre).
- (:55) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson scrambles left guard to BAL 34 for 8 yards (6-P.Queen; 41-P.Wilson).
- (:47) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 80-I.Likely to BAL 42 for 8 yards (41-P.Wilson).
- (:31) (No Huddle) 8-L.Jackson spiked the ball to stop the clock.
- (:30) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 88-C.Kolar to PIT 39 for 19 yards (6-P.Queen).
- (:17) (No Huddle) 8-L.Jackson spiked the ball to stop the clock.
- (:16) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short left to 89-M.Andrews to PIT 30 for 9 yards.
- (:09) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson sacked at PIT 38 for -8 yards (56-A.Highsmith).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.46 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.53 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.46 pts |
| Deep post | +1.32 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.06 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.95 pts |
| QB keep | +0.83 pts |
| Play action | +0.70 pts |
| Quick out | +0.45 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.44 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.43 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.38 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.11 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.31 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.44 pts |
| Outside run | -0.78 pts |
| Inside run | -1.17 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.29 pts |
| Spike it | -1.53 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.