Cardinals vs Colts — Week 6, 2025
The Cardinals took over trailing 31-27 with 4:26 left, 1st & 10 at their own 13, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Colts.
What really happened
Final: Cardinals 27, Colts 31. Colts won 31-27 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Cardinals ball, down 4 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 13, 4:26 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 24.7% for Cardinals. Our model starts at 25.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:26) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 85-T.McBride to ARI 22 for 9 yards (29-M.Blackmon).
- (4:19) 20-Z.Knight up the middle to ARI 23 for 1 yard (44-Z.Franklin).
- (3:37) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 22-M.Carter to ARI 37 for 14 yards (0-C.Bynum).
- (2:56) 68-K.Beachum reported in as eligible. 7-J.Brissett scrambles up the middle to ARI 49 for 12 yards (44-Z.Franklin).
- (2:13) (Shotgun) 22-M.Carter right tackle to IND 42 for 9 yards (44-Z.Franklin).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass deep left to 14-Mi.Wilson to IND 12 for 30 yards (35-J.Edwards).
- (1:16) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short middle to 4-G.Dortch to IND 9 for 3 yards (99-D.Buckner).
- (1:10) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short middle to 22-M.Carter.
- (1:06) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett sacked at IND 9 for 0 yards (51-K.Paye).
- (:58) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short left to 85-T.McBride [97-L.Latu].
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (-0.36 pts), and the weakest was Off-tackle run (-2.34 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | -0.36 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.44 pts |
| Deep post | -0.50 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.66 pts |
| Play action | -0.73 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.04 pts |
| QB keep | -1.08 pts |
| QB sneak | -1.17 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.18 pts |
| Quick out | -1.18 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.23 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.39 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.49 pts |
| Outside run | -1.96 pts |
| Inside run | -2.07 pts |
| Spike it | -2.27 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -2.34 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.