Broncos vs Chargers — Week 3, 2025
The Broncos took over tied at 20 with 2:31 left, 1st & 10 at their own 22, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Chargers.
What really happened
Final: Broncos 20, Chargers 23. Chargers won 23-20 — the drive turned it over.
Broncos ball, even score — any score wins it. At their own 22, 2:31 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 49.8% for Broncos. Our model starts at 56.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:31) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix sacked ob at DEN 22 for 0 yards (43-T.Dye).
- (2:25) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 27-J.Dobbins to DEN 22 for no gain (23-T.Jefferson).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete deep left to 14-C.Sutton.
- (1:53) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 56 yards to LAC 22, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 15-L.McConkey to LAC 32 for 10 yards (28-T.Badie).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+1.44 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.94 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +1.44 pts |
| QB keep | +1.21 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.18 pts |
| Curl route | +1.05 pts |
| Quick out | +0.58 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.44 pts |
| Play action | +0.29 pts |
| Outside run | +0.17 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.13 pts |
| Take a knee | -0.11 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.41 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.59 pts |
| Inside run | -0.79 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.35 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.51 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.85 pts |
| Deep post | -2.33 pts |
| Spike it | -2.94 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.