Panthers vs Packers — Week 9, 2025
The Panthers took over tied at 13 with 2:28 left, 1st & 10 at their own 29, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Packers.
What really happened
Final: Panthers 16, Packers 13. Panthers won 16-13 — the drive scored.
Panthers ball, even score — any score wins it. At their own 29, 2:28 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 50.3% for Panthers. Our model starts at 58.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:28) 5-R.Dowdle left guard to CAR 31 for 2 yards (56-E.Cooper; 94-K.Brooks).
- (2:00) 9-B.Young pass short middle to 18-J.Coker to CAR 40 for 9 yards (33-E.Williams).
- (1:22) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short right to 82-T.Tremble.
- (1:18) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 4-T.McMillan to 50 for 10 yards (20-J.Bullard).
- (:50) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short left to 4-T.McMillan.
- (:46) (Shotgun) 5-R.Dowdle right guard to GB 31 for 19 yards (29-X.McKinney).
- (:40) 5-R.Dowdle up the middle to GB 31 for no gain (95-D.Wyatt; 94-K.Brooks).
- (:08) 5-R.Dowdle left tackle to GB 31 for no gain (56-E.Cooper; 1-M.Parsons).
- (:01) 10-R.Fitzgerald 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+1.42 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.90 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +1.42 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.13 pts |
| Curl route | +0.95 pts |
| QB keep | +0.75 pts |
| Play action | +0.70 pts |
| Quick out | +0.57 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.43 pts |
| Take a knee | +0.14 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.13 pts |
| Outside run | -0.18 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.38 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.80 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.06 pts |
| Inside run | -1.06 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.43 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.66 pts |
| Deep post | -1.81 pts |
| Spike it | -2.90 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.