Buccaneers vs Saints — Week 14, 2025
The Buccaneers took over trailing 24-20 with 1:48 left, 1st & 10 at their own 20, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Saints.
What really happened
Final: Buccaneers 20, Saints 24. Saints won 24-20 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Buccaneers ball, down 4 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 20, 1:48 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 23.0% for Buccaneers. Our model starts at 17.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:48) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete short left to 7-B.Irving [93-N.Shepherd].
- (1:41) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete deep left to 2-E.Egbuka [93-N.Shepherd].
- (1:35) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield scrambles right end ran ob at TB 26 for 6 yards (94-C.Jordan).
- (1:27) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 88-C.Otton to TB 29 for 3 yards (56-D.Davis).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.66 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.73 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.66 pts |
| Deep post | +1.39 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.23 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.11 pts |
| QB keep | +0.98 pts |
| Play action | +0.82 pts |
| Quick out | +0.55 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.48 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.46 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.46 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.17 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.31 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.47 pts |
| Outside run | -0.73 pts |
| Inside run | -1.20 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.35 pts |
| Spike it | -1.73 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.