Cardinals vs Buccaneers — Week 13, 2025
The Cardinals took over trailing 20-17 with 1:49 left, 1st & 10 at their own 9, 1 timeout in hand, against the Buccaneers.
What really happened
Final: Cardinals 17, Buccaneers 20. Buccaneers won 20-17 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Cardinals ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. Backed up at their own 9, 1:49 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 22.5% for Cardinals. Our model starts at 24.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:49) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 4-G.Dortch to ARI 12 for 3 yards (25-J.Parrish; 27-Z.McCollum) [50-V.Vea].
- (1:23) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 22-M.Carter to ARI 17 for 5 yards (35-J.Dean; 25-J.Parrish).
- (:58) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short middle to 89-X.Weaver.
- (:55) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short middle to 14-M.Wilson (8-S.Dennis).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Deep post (-0.69 pts), and the weakest was Off-tackle run (-2.54 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Deep post | -0.69 pts |
| Curl route | -0.93 pts |
| QB sneak | -1.01 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.02 pts |
| Quick slant | -1.38 pts |
| QB keep | -1.40 pts |
| Quick out | -1.47 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.51 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.55 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.57 pts |
| Play action | -1.59 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.68 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.69 pts |
| Spike it | -2.25 pts |
| Inside run | -2.27 pts |
| Outside run | -2.30 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -2.54 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.