Bengals vs Patriots — Week 12, 2025
The Bengals took over trailing 26-20 with 1:44 left, 1st & 10 at their own 28, 1 timeout in hand, against the Patriots.
What really happened
Final: Bengals 20, Patriots 26. Patriots won 26-20 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Bengals ball, down 6 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 28, 1:44 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 21.4% for Bengals. Our model starts at 10.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:44) (Shotgun) 16-J.Flacco pass incomplete deep right to 82-M.Tinsley. ** Injury Update: CIN-80-A.Iosivas has returned to the game.
- (1:38) (Shotgun) 16-J.Flacco pass short middle to 87-T.Hudson to CIN 37 for 9 yards (14-R.Spillane).
- (1:18) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-J.Flacco pass incomplete short right to 80-A.Iosivas (7-C.Davis).
- (1:14) (Shotgun) 30-C.Brown right guard to CIN 41 for 4 yards (31-C.Woodson; 7-C.Davis).
- (1:09) (Shotgun) 16-J.Flacco pass incomplete short right.
- (1:04) (Shotgun) 16-J.Flacco pass short left to 30-C.Brown pushed ob at CIN 43 for 2 yards (25-M.Jones) [2-H.Landry].
- (:58) (Shotgun) 16-J.Flacco pass incomplete deep left to 80-A.Iosivas.
- (:51) (Shotgun) 16-J.Flacco pass short right to 82-M.Tinsley to NE 45 for 12 yards (25-M.Jones) [21-J.Hawkins]. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was inbounds ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 16-J.Flacco pass short right to 82-M.Tinsley ran ob at NE 45 for 12 yards [21-J.Hawkins].
- (:47) (Shotgun) 16-J.Flacco pass deep middle to 80-A.Iosivas to NE 26 for 19 yards (7-C.Davis).
- (:33) (No Huddle) 16-J.Flacco spiked the ball to stop the clock.
- (:32) (Shotgun) 16-J.Flacco pass incomplete short right to 82-M.Tinsley (7-C.Davis).
- (:27) (Shotgun) 16-J.Flacco pass incomplete deep middle to 82-M.Tinsley (7-C.Davis).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Deep post (+1.20 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.13 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Deep post | +1.20 pts |
| Curl route | +1.14 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.80 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.71 pts |
| QB keep | +0.59 pts |
| Play action | +0.52 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.40 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.40 pts |
| Quick out | +0.32 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.27 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.06 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.26 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.36 pts |
| Outside run | -0.75 pts |
| Inside run | -1.01 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.09 pts |
| Spike it | -1.13 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.