Eagles vs Broncos — Week 5, 2025
The Eagles took over trailing 21-17 with 1:06 left, 1st & 10 at their own 26, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Broncos.
What really happened
Final: Eagles 17, Broncos 21. Broncos won 21-17 — the drive time expired.
Eagles ball, down 4 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 26, 1:06 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 23.1% for Eagles. Our model starts at 17.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:06) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts sacked at PHI 22 for -4 yards (15-N.Bonitto).
- (:47) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short middle to 26-S.Barkley to PHI 29 for 7 yards (23-J.Barron).
- (:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short middle to 88-D.Goedert (23-J.Barron).
- (:15) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep right to 2-J.Dotson ran ob at DEN 29 for 24 yards (2-P.Surtain).
- (:09) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete deep right to 88-D.Goedert.
- (:04) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete deep right (26-D.Key, 2-P.Surtain).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.85 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.73 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.85 pts |
| Deep post | +1.69 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.36 pts |
| QB keep | +1.29 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.22 pts |
| Play action | +0.94 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.64 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.63 pts |
| Quick out | +0.62 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.53 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.22 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.29 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.37 pts |
| Outside run | -0.76 pts |
| Inside run | -1.27 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.40 pts |
| Spike it | -1.73 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.