Broncos vs Titans — Week 1, 2025
The Broncos took over leading 20-12 with 4:09 left, 1st & 10 at their own 6, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Titans.
What really happened
Final: Broncos 20, Titans 12. Broncos won 20-12 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Broncos ball, up 8 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. Backed up at their own 6, 4:09 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 93.6% for Broncos. Our model starts at 92.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:09) 63-A.Palczewski reported in as eligible. 27-J.Dobbins left guard to DEN 18 for 12 yards (29-J.Brownlee; 25-X.Woods). TEN-93-T.Sweat was injured during the play.
- (3:26) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 11-T.Franklin to DEN 33 for 15 yards (33-C.Gray). PENALTY on TEN-37-A.Hooker, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at DEN 33.
- (3:19) 63-A.Palczewski reported in as eligible. 27-J.Dobbins right tackle to TEN 49 for 3 yards (98-J.Simmons; 45-D.Jones).
- (3:13) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 27-J.Dobbins to TEN 41 for 8 yards (50-C.Barton). PENALTY on DEN-5-T.Sherfield, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TEN 46.
- (3:07) 63-A.Palczewski reported in as eligible. 10-B.Nix scrambles left end to DEN 48 for 4 yards (49-A.Key).
- (2:58) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 19-M.Mims to DEN 47 for -1 yards (50-C.Barton). PENALTY on TEN-98-J.Simmons, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at DEN 47.
- (2:51) 63-A.Palczewski reported in as eligible. 27-J.Dobbins right guard to TEN 34 for 4 yards (97-J.Lynch; 50-C.Barton).
- (2:07) 27-J.Dobbins right tackle to TEN 33 for 1 yard (29-J.Brownlee).
- (2:00) 27-J.Dobbins right tackle to TEN 36 for -3 yards (29-J.Brownlee). TEN-29-J.Brownlee was injured during the play.
- (1:05) 63-A.Palczewski reported in as eligible. 10-B.Nix pass incomplete deep right to 19-M.Mims.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.31 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-11.13 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.31 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.57 pts |
| Outside run | -0.65 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.70 pts |
| Inside run | -0.78 pts |
| Quick slant | -1.20 pts |
| Quick out | -1.49 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.50 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.50 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.73 pts |
| QB keep | -1.83 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.97 pts |
| Play action | -3.35 pts |
| Curl route | -3.72 pts |
| End-around | -5.39 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.65 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.55 pts |
| Deep post | -9.08 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.34 pts |
| Flea flicker | -11.13 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.