Chargers vs Chiefs — Week 1, 2025
The Chargers took over leading 27-21 with 2:34 left, 1st & 10 at their own 20, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Chiefs.
What really happened
Final: Chargers 27, Chiefs 21. Chargers won 27-21 — the drive time expired.
Chargers ball, up 6 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At their own 20, 2:34 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 91.4% for Chargers. Our model starts at 91.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:34) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 89-W.Dissly to LAC 38 for 18 yards (35-J.Watson).
- (2:26) (Shotgun) 8-O.Hampton right guard to LAC 39 for 1 yard (6-B.Cook; 51-M.Danna).
- (2:21) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert sacked at LAC 34 for -5 yards (23-D.Tranquill).
- (2:14) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert scrambles right end to KC 47 for 19 yards (27-C.Conner).
- (2:00) 10-J.Herbert kneels to KC 48 for -1 yards.
- (1:18) 10-J.Herbert kneels to 50 for -2 yards.
- (:38) 10-J.Herbert kneels to LAC 49 for -1 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.46 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.56 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.46 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.26 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.29 pts |
| Outside run | -0.36 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.48 pts |
| Inside run | -0.64 pts |
| Quick out | -0.74 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.78 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.82 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.14 pts |
| QB keep | -1.17 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.58 pts |
| Curl route | -2.74 pts |
| Play action | -4.43 pts |
| End-around | -4.85 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -6.95 pts |
| Deep corner | -7.81 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.66 pts |
| Deep post | -10.39 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.56 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.