Ravens vs Bears — Week 8, 2025
The Ravens took over leading 23-16 with 5:00 left, 1st & 10 at their own 34, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Bears.
What really happened
Final: Ravens 30, Bears 16. Ravens won 30-16 — the drive scored.
Ravens ball, up 7 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 34, 5:00 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 91.2% for Ravens. Our model starts at 90.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (5:00) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass short right to 4-Z.Flowers to BAL 40 for 6 yards (53-T.Edwards).
- (4:16) (Shotgun) 22-D.Henry right end to BAL 45 for 5 yards (98-M.Sweat; 50-G.Jarrett).
- (3:31) (Shotgun) 43-J.Hill left guard to BAL 47 for 2 yards (97-A.Billings).
- (3:28) (Shotgun) 22-D.Henry left tackle to BAL 48 for 1 yard (99-G.Dexter).
- (3:23) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass short left to 10-D.Hopkins pushed ob at CHI 38 for 14 yards (26-N.Wright).
- (3:18) (Shotgun) 34-K.Mitchell right end pushed ob at CHI 25 for 13 yards (26-N.Wright).
- (3:06) (Shotgun) 34-K.Mitchell left end to CHI 18 for 2 yards (53-T.Edwards; 55-D.Odeyingbo).
- (3:02) 5-T.Huntley left end to CHI 2 for 11 yards (26-N.Wright; 31-K.Byard).
- (2:16) 22-D.Henry right end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.39 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.52 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.39 pts |
| Outside run | -0.29 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.50 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.52 pts |
| Inside run | -0.59 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.60 pts |
| Quick out | -1.01 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.05 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.09 pts |
| QB keep | -1.18 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.32 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.51 pts |
| Play action | -2.63 pts |
| Curl route | -2.90 pts |
| End-around | -4.87 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.11 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.95 pts |
| Deep post | -8.45 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.67 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.52 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.