Steelers vs Bears — Week 12, 2025
The Steelers took over trailing 31-28 with 4:37 left, 1st & 10 at their own 11, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Bears.
What really happened
Final: Steelers 28, Bears 31. Bears won 31-28 — the drive turned it over.
Steelers ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 11, 4:37 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 27.8% for Steelers. Our model starts at 32.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:37) 2-M.Rudolph pass short right to 80-D.Washington to PIT 20 for 9 yards (9-J.Brisker; 24-N.McCloud).
- (3:53) 74-S.Anderson reported in as eligible. 30-J.Warren left end to PIT 20 for no gain (26-N.Wright; 93-J.Tryon).
- (3:17) (Shotgun) 74-S.Anderson reported in as eligible. 30-J.Warren up the middle to PIT 22 for 2 yards (50-G.Jarrett).
- (2:48) (Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph pass short middle to 81-J.Smith to PIT 28 for 6 yards (45-A.Ogbongbemiga; 48-D.Jackson).
- (2:20) (Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph pass incomplete deep right to 10-R.Wilson.
- (2:05) (Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph pass incomplete short left to 4-D.Metcalf (50-G.Jarrett).
- (2:01) 3-C.Waitman punts 33 yards to CHI 44, Center-46-C.Kuntz, downed by PIT-44-C.Bruener.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Pull RPO (-0.92 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.59 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Pull RPO | -0.92 pts |
| Curl route | -0.97 pts |
| Quick slant | -1.20 pts |
| QB sneak | -1.29 pts |
| Play action | -1.30 pts |
| Deep post | -1.35 pts |
| Quick out | -1.54 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.59 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.64 pts |
| QB keep | -1.67 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.71 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.74 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.91 pts |
| Outside run | -2.10 pts |
| Inside run | -2.18 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -2.52 pts |
| Spike it | -2.59 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.