Lions vs Giants — Week 12, 2025
The Lions took over trailing 27-24 with 2:54 left, 1st & 10 at their own 6, 1 timeout in hand, against the Giants.
What really happened
Final: Lions 27, Giants 27. Tied 27-27 — the drive scored.
Lions ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. Backed up at their own 6, 2:54 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 30.0% for Lions. Our model starts at 27.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:54) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 89-B.Wright pushed ob at DET 10 for 4 yards (22-A.Phillips). NYG-22-A.Phillips was injured during the play.
- (2:43) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 0-J.Gibbs to DET 18 for 13 yards (58-B.Okereke).
- (2:11) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short right [97-D.Lawrence].
- (2:07) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 14-A.St. Brown to DET 27 for 9 yards (58-B.Okereke).
- (1:59) (Shotgun) 0-J.Gibbs up the middle to DET 30 for 3 yards (91-D.Alexander; 31-N.Jones).
- (1:43) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 14-A.St. Brown to DET 38 for 8 yards (58-B.Okereke).
- (1:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 14-A.St. Brown to DET 47 for 9 yards (31-N.Jones).
- (1:13) (No Huddle) 16-J.Goff spiked the ball to stop the clock.
- (1:12) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 0-J.Gibbs to NYG 41 for 12 yards (8-J.Holland). ** Injury Update: NYG-22-A.Phillips has returned to the game. PENALTY on NYG-8-J.Holland, Defensive Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced between downs.
- (:58) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete deep right to 18-I.TeSlaa [51-A.Carter].
- (:54) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 0-J.Gibbs to NYG 41 for -5 yards (24-D.Belton).
- (:37) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short middle to 0-J.Gibbs.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was QB sneak (-1.12 pts), and the weakest was Off-tackle run (-2.48 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| QB sneak | -1.12 pts |
| Quick slant | -1.39 pts |
| Quick out | -1.49 pts |
| QB keep | -1.50 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.53 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.59 pts |
| Deep post | -1.66 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.70 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.73 pts |
| Curl route | -1.79 pts |
| Outside run | -2.17 pts |
| Inside run | -2.19 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -2.28 pts |
| Play action | -2.31 pts |
| Spike it | -2.38 pts |
| Deep corner | -2.46 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -2.48 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.