Dolphins vs Patriots — Week 2, 2025
The Dolphins took over trailing 33-27 with 1:47 left, 1st & 10 at their own 40, 1 timeout in hand, against the Patriots.
What really happened
Final: Dolphins 27, Patriots 33. Patriots won 33-27 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Dolphins ball, down 6 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 40, 1:47 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 20.5% for Dolphins. Our model starts at 13.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:47) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 17-J.Waddle ran ob at MIA 47 for 7 yards (28-A.Austin).
- (1:42) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short middle to 30-A.Ingold to NE 44 for 9 yards (14-R.Spillane).
- (1:15) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 28-D.Achane ran ob at NE 26 for 18 yards (31-C.Woodson).
- (1:09) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass incomplete deep left to 17-J.Waddle. NE-15-M.Mapu was injured during the play.
- (1:04) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 82-D.Eskridge to NE 28 for 8 yards (28-A.Austin).
- (:58) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa sacked ob at NE 28 for 0 yards (14-R.Spillane).
- (:53) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa sacked at NE 37 for -9 yards (97-M.Williams).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.42 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.42 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.42 pts |
| Deep post | +1.37 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.01 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.90 pts |
| QB keep | +0.77 pts |
| Play action | +0.67 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.47 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.46 pts |
| Quick out | +0.43 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.36 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.10 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.30 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.43 pts |
| Outside run | -0.83 pts |
| Inside run | -1.18 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.29 pts |
| Spike it | -1.42 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.