Vikings vs Bears — Week 1, 2025
The Vikings took over leading 27-24 with 1:55 left, 1st & 10 at their own 26, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Bears.
What really happened
Final: Vikings 27, Bears 24. Vikings won 27-24 — the drive turned it over.
Vikings ball, up 3 — a field goal forces them to score a touchdown. At their own 26, 1:55 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 87.9% for Vikings. Our model starts at 82.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:55) 27-J.Mason right tackle to MIN 29 for 3 yards (31-K.Byard).
- (1:47) 27-J.Mason right tackle to MIN 30 for 1 yard (9-J.Brisker).
- (1:02) 27-J.Mason left tackle to MIN 31 for 1 yard (99-G.Dexter).
- (:16) 17-R.Wright punts 49 yards to CHI 20, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 12-D.Duvernay.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.45 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-8.88 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.45 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.39 pts |
| Outside run | +0.25 pts |
| QB keep | -0.08 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.22 pts |
| Quick out | -0.23 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.30 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.32 pts |
| Inside run | -0.36 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.41 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.45 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.20 pts |
| Curl route | -1.34 pts |
| Play action | -1.43 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.87 pts |
| End-around | -3.93 pts |
| Deep corner | -4.57 pts |
| Deep post | -6.56 pts |
| Receiver pass | -7.18 pts |
| Flea flicker | -8.88 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.