Chiefs vs Broncos — Week 11, 2025
The Chiefs took over tied at 19 with 4:05 left, 1st & 10 at their own 26, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Broncos.
What really happened
Final: Chiefs 19, Broncos 22. Broncos won 22-19 — the drive turned it over.
Chiefs ball, even score — any score wins it. At their own 26, 4:05 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 47.4% for Chiefs. Our model starts at 56.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:05) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete short middle to 87-T.Kelce (9-T.Hufanga).
- (4:01) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete deep right to 87-T.Kelce (22-B.Jones) [99-Z.Allen].
- (3:53) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes sacked at KC 15 for -11 yards (29-J.McMillian).
- (3:10) 14-M.Araiza punts 66 yards to DEN 19, Center-41-J.Winchester. 19-M.Mims to DEN 26 for 7 yards (38-K.Knowles).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+0.95 pts), and the weakest was Deep post (-3.09 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +0.95 pts |
| QB keep | +0.74 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.61 pts |
| Take a knee | +0.38 pts |
| Curl route | +0.35 pts |
| Quick out | +0.21 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.08 pts |
| Outside run | +0.04 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.19 pts |
| Play action | -0.25 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.60 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.66 pts |
| Inside run | -0.82 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.39 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -2.06 pts |
| Deep corner | -2.43 pts |
| Spike it | -2.92 pts |
| Deep post | -3.09 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.