Eagles vs Buccaneers — Week 4, 2025
The Eagles took over leading 31-23 with 0:57 left, 1st & 10 at their own 35, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Buccaneers.
What really happened
Final: Eagles 31, Buccaneers 25. Eagles won 31-25 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Eagles ball, up 8 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 35, 0:57 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 99.3% for Eagles. Our model starts at 98.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (:57) (Shotgun) 26-S.Barkley up the middle to PHI 36 for 1 yard (43-C.Braswell).
- (:54) 26-S.Barkley up the middle to PHI 40 for 4 yards (23-T.Smith).
- (:50) 26-S.Barkley up the middle to PHI 39 for -1 yards (54-L.David).
- (:06) (Punt formation) 10-B.Mann right end tackled in End Zone for -34 yards, SAFETY (26-K.Merriweather).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+0.40 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-11.67 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +0.40 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.43 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.47 pts |
| Outside run | -0.80 pts |
| Inside run | -0.87 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.99 pts |
| Quick out | -1.33 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.34 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.34 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.78 pts |
| QB keep | -1.78 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.86 pts |
| Play action | -3.21 pts |
| Curl route | -3.69 pts |
| End-around | -5.70 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.72 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.69 pts |
| Deep post | -9.60 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.69 pts |
| Flea flicker | -11.67 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.