Seahawks vs Texans — Week 7, 2025
The Seahawks took over leading 27-19 with 1:58 left, 1st & 10 at their own 28, 1 timeout in hand, against the Texans.
What really happened
Final: Seahawks 27, Texans 19. Seahawks won 27-19 — the drive time expired.
Seahawks ball, up 8 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 28, 1:58 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 98.6% for Seahawks. Our model starts at 97.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:58) 26-Z.Charbonnet up the middle to SEA 31 for 3 yards (90-S.Rankins; 55-D.Hunter).
- (1:53) 26-Z.Charbonnet up the middle to SEA 35 for 4 yards (55-D.Hunter).
- (1:10) 26-Z.Charbonnet right guard to SEA 34 for -1 yards (45-E.Speed, 5-J.Pitre). PENALTY on HOU-98-T.Settle, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at SEA 34.
- (:57) 14-S.Darnold kneels to SEA 48 for -1 yards.
- (:34) 14-S.Darnold kneels to SEA 47 for -1 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+0.75 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-11.41 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +0.75 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.40 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.46 pts |
| Outside run | -0.65 pts |
| Inside run | -0.77 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.85 pts |
| Quick out | -1.21 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.22 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.23 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.62 pts |
| QB keep | -1.62 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.75 pts |
| Play action | -3.00 pts |
| Curl route | -3.47 pts |
| End-around | -5.46 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.51 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.46 pts |
| Deep post | -9.28 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.44 pts |
| Flea flicker | -11.41 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.