Patriots vs Saints — Week 6, 2025
The Patriots took over leading 25-19 with 3:43 left, 1st & 10 at their own 21, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Saints.
What really happened
Final: Patriots 25, Saints 19. Patriots won 25-19 — the drive time expired.
Patriots ball, up 6 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At their own 21, 3:43 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 88.0% for Patriots. Our model starts at 89.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:43) 38-R.Stevenson left guard to NE 24 for 3 yards (94-C.Jordan).
- (3:37) 10-D.Maye pass short right to 9-K.Boutte to NE 31 for 7 yards (1-A.Taylor).
- (3:30) 32-T.Henderson up the middle to NE 29 for -2 yards (21-J.Reid).
- (3:25) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye scrambles left end to NE 30 for 1 yard (93-N.Shepherd).
- (2:40) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep left to 9-K.Boutte pushed ob at NO 49 for 21 yards (4-K.McKinstry). New England challenged the runner was out of bounds ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep left to 9-K.Boutte to NO 49 for 21 yards (4-K.McKinstry).
- (2:00) 10-D.Maye kneels to NE 49 for -2 yards.
- (1:18) 10-D.Maye kneels to NE 48 for -1 yards.
- (:39) 10-D.Maye kneels to NE 47 for -1 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.49 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.25 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.49 pts |
| Outside run | -0.34 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.37 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.43 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.54 pts |
| Inside run | -0.67 pts |
| Quick out | -0.83 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.88 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.94 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.07 pts |
| QB keep | -1.10 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.59 pts |
| Play action | -2.21 pts |
| Curl route | -2.58 pts |
| End-around | -4.67 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.67 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.50 pts |
| Deep post | -7.88 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.41 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.25 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.