Packers vs Eagles — Week 10, 2025
The Packers took over trailing 10-7 with 2:18 left, 1st & 10 at their own 10, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Eagles.
What really happened
Final: Packers 7, Eagles 10. Eagles won 10-7 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Packers ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. Backed up at their own 10, 2:18 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 31.7% for Packers. Our model starts at 27.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:18) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete short right to 13-D.Wicks.
- (2:15) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete deep middle to 16-B.Melton [3-N.Smith].
- (2:10) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep middle to 9-C.Watson to GB 35 for 25 yards (24-A.Mukuba; 32-R.Blankenship).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete short middle to 8-J.Jacobs.
- (1:56) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete deep left to 13-D.Wicks (8-A.Jackson).
- (1:51) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 88-L.Musgrave to GB 44 for 9 yards (8-A.Jackson).
- (1:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-J.Jacobs right end to GB 40 for -4 yards (50-J.Phillips, 32-R.Blankenship). FUMBLES (32-R.Blankenship), RECOVERED by PHI-32-R.Blankenship at GB 39. Penalty on GB, Illegal Formation, declined.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (-0.78 pts), and the weakest was Off-tackle run (-2.56 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | -0.78 pts |
| Deep post | -0.82 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.87 pts |
| QB sneak | -1.04 pts |
| Quick slant | -1.43 pts |
| QB keep | -1.45 pts |
| Play action | -1.46 pts |
| Quick out | -1.52 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.57 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.57 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.62 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.71 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.74 pts |
| Inside run | -2.27 pts |
| Outside run | -2.28 pts |
| Spike it | -2.37 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -2.56 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.