Bears vs Giants — Week 10, 2025
The Bears took over trailing 20-17 with 2:53 left, 1st & 10 at their own 47, 1 timeout in hand, against the Giants.
What really happened
Final: Bears 24, Giants 20. Bears won 24-20 — the drive scored.
Bears ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. Near midfield, 2:53 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 42.1% for Bears. Our model starts at 39.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:53) 75-O.Trapilo reported in as eligible. 4-D.Swift right end to NYG 46 for 7 yards (95-R.Robertson-Harris). ** Injury Update: NYG-27-T.Nubin has returned to the game.
- (2:14) 18-C.Williams pass deep right to 10-L.Burden to NYG 19 for 27 yards (27-T.Nubin; 38-K.Black).
- (2:00) 75-O.Trapilo reported in as eligible. 4-D.Swift right guard to NYG 17 for 2 yards (33-D.Flannigan-Fowles; 95-R.Robertson-Harris).
- (1:54) 18-C.Williams scrambles left end for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.72 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.85 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.72 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.54 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.47 pts |
| Play action | +1.25 pts |
| QB keep | +0.95 pts |
| Quick out | +0.71 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.58 pts |
| Deep post | +0.55 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.22 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.17 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.01 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.43 pts |
| Outside run | -0.60 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.85 pts |
| Inside run | -1.40 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.79 pts |
| Spike it | -2.85 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.