Colts vs Falcons — Week 10, 2025
The Colts took over trailing 25-22 with 1:37 left, 1st & 10 at the Falcons 48, 1 timeout in hand, against the Falcons.
What really happened
Final: Colts 25, Falcons 25. Tied 25-25 — the drive scored.
Colts ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. Near midfield, 1:37 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 43.0% for Colts. Our model starts at 40.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:37) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass incomplete short left to 84-T.Warren (55-K.Elliss). The Replay Official reviewed the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
- (1:32) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones sacked at IND 41 for -11 yards (17-A.Ebiketie).
- (1:27) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones scrambles right end pushed ob at ATL 40 for 19 yards (3-J.Bates).
- (1:17) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short left to 84-T.Warren ran ob at ATL 30 for 10 yards (31-X.Watts).
- (1:11) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass incomplete deep left to 14-A.Pierce.
- (1:07) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones sacked at ATL 36 for -6 yards (36-R.Harrison).
- (:35) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short left to 11-M.Pittman to ATL 26 for 10 yards (32-K.Taylor; 31-X.Watts).
- (:29) 12-M.Badgley 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+2.38 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.91 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +2.38 pts |
| Curl route | +2.24 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.87 pts |
| QB keep | +1.68 pts |
| Quick out | +1.38 pts |
| Quick hook | +1.24 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.82 pts |
| Quick RPO | +0.01 pts |
| Outside run | -0.38 pts |
| Play action | -0.55 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.63 pts |
| Inside run | -1.32 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.69 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.98 pts |
| Deep corner | -2.14 pts |
| Deep post | -2.16 pts |
| Spike it | -2.91 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.