Steelers vs Vikings — Week 4, 2025
The Steelers took over leading 24-21 with 2:07 left, 1st & 10 at the Vikings 49, 1 timeout in hand, against the Vikings.
What really happened
Final: Steelers 24, Vikings 21. Steelers won 24-21 — the drive turned it over.
Steelers ball, up 3 — a field goal forces them to score a touchdown. Near midfield, 2:07 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 89.3% for Steelers. Our model starts at 87.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:07) 14-K.Gainwell up the middle to MIN 45 for 4 yards (55-E.Wilson).
- (2:00) 14-K.Gainwell left end to MIN 40 for 5 yards (0-I.Pace).
- (1:52) 74-S.Anderson reported in as eligible. 14-K.Gainwell up the middle to MIN 40 for no gain (93-J.Allen; 15-D.Turner).
- (1:08) 3-C.Waitman punts 45 yards to end zone, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Touchback.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.51 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-9.69 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.51 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.03 pts |
| Outside run | -0.16 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.31 pts |
| Quick out | -0.50 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.50 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.57 pts |
| Inside run | -0.59 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.63 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.66 pts |
| QB keep | -0.70 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.49 pts |
| Play action | -1.69 pts |
| Curl route | -1.98 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.14 pts |
| End-around | -4.33 pts |
| Deep corner | -4.92 pts |
| Deep post | -7.12 pts |
| Receiver pass | -7.88 pts |
| Flea flicker | -9.69 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.