Bengals vs Bears — Week 9, 2025
The Bengals took over trailing 41-35 with 1:42 left, 1st & 10 at their own 43, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Bears.
What really happened
Final: Bengals 42, Bears 47. Bears won 47-42 — the drive scored.
Bengals ball, down 6 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 43, 1:42 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 17.6% for Bengals. Our model starts at 13.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:42) (Shotgun) 16-J.Flacco pass incomplete short middle to 30-C.Brown.
- (1:39) (Shotgun) 16-J.Flacco pass short middle to 5-T.Higgins to CHI 45 for 12 yards (29-T.Stevenson).
- (1:20) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-J.Flacco pass deep right to 5-T.Higgins to CHI 22 for 23 yards (9-J.Brisker). CIN-5-T.Higgins was injured during the play. Penalty on CHI-92-D.Hardy, Defensive Holding, declined.
- (1:11) (Shotgun) 16-J.Flacco pass short left to 30-C.Brown pushed ob at CHI 7 for 15 yards (31-K.Byard). Penalty on CHI-26-N.Wright, Illegal Use of Hands, declined.
- (1:03) (Shotgun) 30-C.Brown up the middle to CHI 9 for -2 yards (31-K.Byard, 53-T.Edwards).
- (:58) (Shotgun) 16-J.Flacco pass short middle to 80-A.Iosivas for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.44 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.42 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.44 pts |
| Deep post | +1.40 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.04 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.92 pts |
| QB keep | +0.79 pts |
| Play action | +0.69 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.49 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.49 pts |
| Quick out | +0.44 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.37 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.11 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.29 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.42 pts |
| Outside run | -0.82 pts |
| Inside run | -1.18 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.28 pts |
| Spike it | -1.42 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.