Chargers vs Dolphins — Week 6, 2025
The Chargers took over trailing 27-26 with 0:39 left, 1st & 10 at their own 41, 1 timeout in hand, against the Dolphins.
What really happened
Final: Chargers 29, Dolphins 27. Chargers won 29-27 — the drive scored.
Chargers ball, down 1 — a field goal wins it. At their own 41, 0:39 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 40.9% for Chargers. Our model starts at 53.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (:39) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short middle to 15-L.McConkey [92-Z.Sieler].
- (:34) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 15-L.McConkey ran ob at MIA 17 for 42 yards (23-J.Jones).
- (:22) 30-K.Vidal up the middle to MIA 16 for 1 yard (94-Jo.Phillips; 15-Ja.Phillips).
- (:17) 30-K.Vidal up the middle to MIA 15 for 1 yard (91-M.Butler).
- (:13) 30-K.Vidal right tackle to MIA 15 for no gain (2-B.Chubb).
- (:09) 11-C.Dicker 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-R.Lovato, Holder-16-J.Scott.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+2.49 pts), and the weakest was Deep post (-3.89 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +2.49 pts |
| QB keep | +2.09 pts |
| Curl route | +1.93 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.79 pts |
| Quick out | +1.41 pts |
| Quick hook | +1.26 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.83 pts |
| Quick RPO | +0.07 pts |
| Outside run | -0.37 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.43 pts |
| Play action | -1.14 pts |
| Inside run | -1.36 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.88 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.02 pts |
| Spike it | -3.04 pts |
| Deep corner | -3.30 pts |
| Deep post | -3.89 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.