Buccaneers vs Jets — Week 3, 2025
The Buccaneers took over leading 26-20 with 3:40 left, 1st & 10 at their own 35, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Jets.
What really happened
Final: Buccaneers 29, Jets 27. Buccaneers won 29-27 — the drive missed field goal.
Buccaneers ball, up 6 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At their own 35, 3:40 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 89.5% for Buccaneers. Our model starts at 91.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:40) 7-B.Irving left tackle to TB 38 for 3 yards (51-F.Mauigoa).
- (3:36) 6-B.Mayfield scrambles right end to NYJ 29 for 33 yards (30-M.Carter).
- (3:17) 7-B.Irving left guard to NYJ 26 for 3 yards (51-F.Mauigoa; 21-B.Stephens).
- (2:33) 7-B.Irving up the middle to NYJ 24 for 2 yards (97-H.Phillips; 44-J.Sherwood).
- (2:28) (Shotgun) 7-B.Irving left tackle to NYJ 20 for 4 yards (44-J.Sherwood; 27-M.Moore).
- (2:00) 4-C.McLaughlin 43 yard field goal is BLOCKED (9-W.McDonald), Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon, RECOVERED by NYJ-9-W.McDonald at 50. 9-W.McDonald for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.39 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.55 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.39 pts |
| Outside run | -0.39 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.42 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.49 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.51 pts |
| Inside run | -0.67 pts |
| Quick out | -0.92 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.96 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.00 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.21 pts |
| QB keep | -1.22 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.61 pts |
| Play action | -2.40 pts |
| Curl route | -2.80 pts |
| End-around | -4.85 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.89 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.74 pts |
| Deep post | -8.24 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.67 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.55 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.