Packers vs Bengals — Week 6, 2025
The Packers took over leading 24-18 with 4:02 left, 1st & 10 at their own 38, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Bengals.
What really happened
Final: Packers 27, Bengals 18. Packers won 27-18 — the drive scored.
Packers ball, up 6 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At their own 38, 4:02 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 90.1% for Packers. Our model starts at 90.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:02) 8-J.Jacobs left end to GB 43 for 5 yards (29-C.Taylor-Britt).
- (3:17) 10-J.Love sacked at GB 40 for -3 yards (22-G.Stone).
- (2:32) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep left to 0-M.Golden pushed ob at CIN 29 for 31 yards (27-J.Battle) [58-J.Ossai].
- (2:24) 8-J.Jacobs up the middle to CIN 26 for 3 yards (27-J.Battle; 23-D.Hill).
- (2:19) 10-J.Love scrambles right end to CIN 21 for 5 yards (44-D.Knight).
- (2:00) 10-J.Love pass incomplete short left to 0-M.Golden [22-G.Stone].
- (1:56) 35-L.Havrisik 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.48 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.43 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.48 pts |
| Outside run | -0.17 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.43 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.45 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.46 pts |
| Inside run | -0.49 pts |
| Quick out | -0.90 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.94 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.99 pts |
| QB keep | -1.05 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.18 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.42 pts |
| Play action | -2.49 pts |
| Curl route | -2.74 pts |
| End-around | -4.77 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.99 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.83 pts |
| Deep post | -8.32 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.57 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.43 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.