Steelers vs Bengals — Week 7, 2025
The Steelers took over trailing 30-24 with 2:46 left, 1st & 10 at their own 42, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Bengals.
What really happened
Final: Steelers 31, Bengals 33. Bengals won 33-31 — the drive scored.
Steelers ball, down 6 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 42, 2:46 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 18.7% for Steelers. Our model starts at 18.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:46) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep right to 80-D.Washington (55-L.Wilson).
- (2:31) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass deep left to 88-P.Freiermuth for 68 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.48 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.81 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.48 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.08 pts |
| Deep post | +1.05 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.01 pts |
| QB keep | +0.87 pts |
| Play action | +0.67 pts |
| Quick out | +0.45 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.37 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.27 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.24 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.08 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.38 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.51 pts |
| Outside run | -0.82 pts |
| Inside run | -1.28 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.44 pts |
| Spike it | -1.81 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.