Broncos vs Giants — Week 7, 2025
The Broncos took over trailing 26-23 with 2:42 left, 1st & 10 at their own 32, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Giants.
What really happened
Final: Broncos 33, Giants 32. Broncos won 33-32 — the drive scored.
Broncos ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 32, 2:42 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 31.6% for Broncos. Our model starts at 31.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:42) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 27-J.Dobbins to DEN 31 for -1 yards (0-B.Burns). ** Injury Update: DEN-69-M.McGlinchey has returned to the game.
- (2:17) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete short middle to 11-T.Franklin.
- (2:14) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep right to 19-M.Mims pushed ob at NYG 38 for 31 yards (22-A.Phillips).
- (2:06) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete short left to 11-T.Franklin.
- (2:04) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 1-E.Engram to NYG 18 for 20 yards (24-D.Belton).
- (1:56) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix left end for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.83 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.56 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.83 pts |
| QB keep | +1.62 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.46 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.45 pts |
| Play action | +0.87 pts |
| Quick out | +0.69 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.57 pts |
| Deep post | +0.48 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.23 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.02 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.12 pts |
| Outside run | -0.18 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.41 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.42 pts |
| Inside run | -1.00 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.28 pts |
| Spike it | -2.56 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.