Jaguars vs Chiefs — Week 5, 2025
The Jaguars took over trailing 28-24 with 1:45 left, 1st & 10 at their own 40, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Chiefs.
What really happened
Final: Jaguars 31, Chiefs 28. Jaguars won 31-28 — the drive scored.
Jaguars ball, down 4 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 40, 1:45 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 31.6% for Jaguars. Our model starts at 26.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:45) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence scrambles right end to JAX 46 for 6 yards (90-C.Omenihu).
- (1:09) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence sacked at JAX 43 for -3 yards (sack split by 56-G.Karlaftis and 54-L.Chenal).
- (1:01) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep right to 7-B.Thomas pushed ob at KC 24 for 33 yards (27-C.Conner).
- (:54) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 5-D.Brown ran ob at KC 11 for 13 yards (35-J.Watson).
- (:48) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short left to 5-D.Brown (22-T.McDuffie).
- (:44) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 5-D.Brown to KC 14 for 2 yards (56-G.Karlaftis).
- (:30) 16-T.Lawrence scrambles left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on KC-27-C.Conner, Defensive Holding, declined.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+2.13 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.37 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +2.13 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.63 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.54 pts |
| QB keep | +1.37 pts |
| Deep post | +1.26 pts |
| Play action | +1.07 pts |
| Quick out | +0.77 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.65 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.41 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.35 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.28 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.37 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.59 pts |
| Outside run | -0.74 pts |
| Inside run | -1.44 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.67 pts |
| Spike it | -2.37 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.