Cardinals vs Packers — Week 7, 2025
The Cardinals took over trailing 27-23 with 1:50 left, 1st & 10 at their own 35, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Packers.
What really happened
Final: Cardinals 23, Packers 27. Packers won 27-23 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Cardinals ball, down 4 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 35, 1:50 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 31.3% for Cardinals. Our model starts at 24.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:46) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 85-T.McBride to ARI 31 for 6 yards (7-Q.Walker).
- (1:28) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass deep middle to 17-Z.Jones to GB 45 for 24 yards (29-X.McKinney).
- (:59) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short right to 18-M.Harrison.
- (:55) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 22-M.Carter to GB 26 for 14 yards (20-J.Bullard).
- (:32) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett sacked at GB 35 for -9 yards (1-M.Parsons).
- (:27) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett scrambles up the middle to GB 27 for 8 yards (21-N.Hobbs; 33-E.Williams).
- (:19) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete deep left to 18-M.Harrison [94-K.Brooks].
- (:13) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete deep middle (29-X.McKinney) [52-R.Gary].
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+2.03 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.25 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +2.03 pts |
| QB keep | +1.57 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.54 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.45 pts |
| Deep post | +1.29 pts |
| Play action | +1.01 pts |
| Quick out | +0.72 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.61 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.42 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.37 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.25 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.37 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.43 pts |
| Outside run | -0.57 pts |
| Inside run | -1.27 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.48 pts |
| Spike it | -2.25 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.