Patriots vs Dolphins — Week 2, 2025
The Patriots took over leading 30-27 with 2:12 left, 1st & 10 at the Dolphins 38, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Dolphins.
What really happened
Final: Patriots 33, Dolphins 27. Patriots won 33-27 — the drive scored.
Patriots ball, up 3 — a field goal forces them to score a touchdown. In Dolphins territory, 2:12 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 89.4% for Patriots. Our model starts at 89.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:12) 38-R.Stevenson up the middle to MIA 36 for 2 yards (25-T.Dodson).
- (2:00) 10-D.Maye pass incomplete short right to 13-M.Hollins.
- (1:56) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short right to 8-S.Diggs to MIA 30 for 6 yards (26-R.Douglas).
- (1:52) 36-A.Borregales 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.38 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.13 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.38 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.18 pts |
| Outside run | -0.26 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.33 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.49 pts |
| Inside run | -0.62 pts |
| Quick out | -0.67 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.73 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.80 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.87 pts |
| QB keep | -0.93 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.54 pts |
| Play action | -2.01 pts |
| Curl route | -2.35 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.49 pts |
| End-around | -4.60 pts |
| Field goal | -5.21 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.31 pts |
| Deep post | -7.68 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.28 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.13 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.