Jets vs Broncos — Week 6, 2025
The Jets took over trailing 13-11 with 2:23 left, 1st & 10 at their own 43, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Broncos.
What really happened
Final: Jets 11, Broncos 13. Broncos won 13-11 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Jets ball, down 2 — a field goal wins it. At their own 43, 2:23 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 44.1% for Jets. Our model starts at 44.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:23) (Shotgun) 7-J.Fields Aborted. 71-J.Myers FUMBLES at NYJ 38, recovered by NYJ-20-B.Hall at NYJ 38. 20-B.Hall to 50 for 12 yards (49-A.Singleton). ** Injury Update: NYJ-5-G.Wilson has returned to the game.
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 20-B.Hall up the middle to DEN 46 for 4 yards (9-T.Hufanga).
- (1:56) (Shotgun) 7-J.Fields sacked at NYJ 49 for -5 yards (40-J.Strnad).
- (1:25) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-J.Fields pass short right to 5-G.Wilson to DEN 44 for 7 yards (29-J.McMillian).
- (1:18) (Shotgun) 7-J.Fields pass incomplete short left to 5-G.Wilson (9-T.Hufanga).
- (1:14) (Shotgun) 7-J.Fields sacked at NYJ 44 for -12 yards (sack split by 0-J.Cooper and 22-B.Jones).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.79 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.95 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.79 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.69 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.59 pts |
| QB keep | +1.51 pts |
| Play action | +0.83 pts |
| Quick out | +0.81 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.66 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.31 pts |
| Outside run | -0.04 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.38 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.57 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.60 pts |
| Deep post | -0.64 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.79 pts |
| Inside run | -0.99 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.42 pts |
| Spike it | -2.95 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.