Rams vs Eagles — Week 3, 2025
The Rams took over trailing 27-26 with 1:44 left, 1st & 10 at their own 30, 1 timeout in hand, against the Eagles.
What really happened
Final: Rams 26, Eagles 33. Eagles won 33-26 — the drive missed field goal.
Rams ball, down 1 — a field goal wins it. At their own 30, 1:44 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 44.2% for Rams. Our model starts at 48.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:44) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short right to 12-P.Nacua.
- (1:41) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 12-P.Nacua to LA 39 for 9 yards (23-J.Bennett).
- (1:23) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 23-K.Williams right guard to LA 44 for 5 yards (3-N.Smith).
- (1:06) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 12-P.Nacua to PHI 44 for 12 yards (23-J.Bennett).
- (:46) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete deep right to 12-P.Nacua.
- (:41) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 88-J.Whittington to PHI 35 for 9 yards (23-J.Bennett, 32-R.Blankenship).
- (:22) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 23-K.Williams up the middle to PHI 33 for 2 yards (53-Z.Baun; 98-J.Carter).
- (:18) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete deep right to 12-P.Nacua (23-J.Bennett).
- (:13) 23-K.Williams right guard to PHI 26 for 7 yards (24-A.Mukuba; 33-C.DeJean).
- (:03) 16-J.Karty 44 yard field goal is BLOCKED (90-J.Davis), Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans, RECOVERED by PHI-90-J.Davis at PHI 39. 90-J.Davis for 61 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.88 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-3.00 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.88 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.83 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.71 pts |
| QB keep | +1.62 pts |
| Quick out | +0.90 pts |
| Play action | +0.89 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.75 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.37 pts |
| Outside run | +0.02 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.32 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.59 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.63 pts |
| Deep post | -0.83 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.87 pts |
| Inside run | -0.98 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.45 pts |
| Spike it | -3.00 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.