Patriots vs Steelers — Week 3, 2025

What really happened

Final: Patriots 14, Steelers 21. Steelers won 21-14 — the drive turned it over on downs.

Patriots ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. At their own 26, 2:11 on the clock.

nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 13.4% for Patriots. Our model starts at 8.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.

The real drive, snap by snap

1. (2:11) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 9-K.Boutte ran ob at NE 34 for 8 yards (26-B.Echols).
2. (2:07) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short right to 85-H.Henry to NE 40 for 6 yards (22-J.Thornhill).
3. (2:00) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 32-T.Henderson to NE 48 for 8 yards (22-J.Thornhill; 41-P.Wilson).
4. (1:39) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-D.Maye scrambles right end ran ob at PIT 37 for 15 yards (22-J.Thornhill).
5. (1:31) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye sacked at PIT 40 for -3 yards (90-T.Watt).
6. (1:25) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass incomplete short middle to 3-D.Douglas.
7. (1:21) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short right to 85-H.Henry to PIT 28 for 12 yards (22-J.Thornhill).
8. (1:07) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 3-D.Douglas to PIT 29 for -1 yards (26-B.Echols).

The opening call, by win probability

At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Deep post (+0.92 pts), and the weakest was Off-tackle run (-0.94 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.

This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.