Buccaneers vs Jets — Week 3, 2025
The Buccaneers took over trailing 27-26 with 1:41 left, 1st & 10 at their own 34, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Jets.
What really happened
Final: Buccaneers 29, Jets 27. Buccaneers won 29-27 — the drive scored.
Buccaneers ball, down 1 — a field goal wins it. At their own 34, 1:41 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 55.3% for Buccaneers. Our model starts at 51.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:41) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete deep middle to 15-T.Johnson.
- (1:41) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 17-S.Shepard to NYJ 18 for 20 yards (41-M.McCrary-Ball). ** Injury Update: NYJ-1-A.Gardner has returned to the game.
- (1:36) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep left to 2-E.Egbuka pushed ob at NYJ 38 for 28 yards (8-A.Cisco).
- (1:31) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete deep right to 2-E.Egbuka (23-A.Thomas).
- (:52) 7-B.Irving up the middle to NYJ 17 for 1 yard (55-B.McGregor; 97-H.Phillips).
- (:07) 6-B.Mayfield kneels to NYJ 18 for -1 yards.
- (:03) 4-C.McLaughlin 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+1.79 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-3.00 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +1.79 pts |
| Curl route | +1.72 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.63 pts |
| QB keep | +1.57 pts |
| Quick out | +0.85 pts |
| Play action | +0.76 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.71 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.34 pts |
| Outside run | +0.04 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.33 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.59 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.87 pts |
| Inside run | -0.97 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.15 pts |
| Deep post | -1.28 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.47 pts |
| Spike it | -3.00 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.