Packers vs Browns — Week 3, 2025
The Packers took over tied at 10 with 2:52 left, 1st & 10 at their own 40, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Browns.
What really happened
Final: Packers 10, Browns 13. Browns won 13-10 — the drive missed field goal.
Packers ball, even score — any score wins it. At their own 40, 2:52 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 51.0% for Packers. Our model starts at 63.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:47) 10-J.Love pass short right to 85-T.Kraft to CLE 22 for 18 yards (21-D.Ward).
- (2:00) 8-J.Jacobs right tackle to CLE 21 for 1 yard (21-D.Ward). The Replay Official reviewed the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 8-J.Jacobs right tackle to CLE 21 for 1 yard (21-D.Ward, 30-D.Bush). FUMBLES (30-D.Bush), and recovers at CLE 21.
- (1:56) 8-J.Jacobs right end to CLE 22 for -1 yards (95-M.Garrett).
- (1:12) 8-J.Jacobs right tackle to CLE 25 for 2 yards (33-R.Hickman).
- (:27) 17-B.McManus 43 yard field goal is BLOCKED (93-S.Harris), Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan, RECOVERED by CLE-0-G.Newsome at CLE 47.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+1.19 pts), and the weakest was Deep post (-3.47 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +1.19 pts |
| QB keep | +0.93 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.82 pts |
| Take a knee | +0.64 pts |
| Curl route | +0.46 pts |
| Quick out | +0.39 pts |
| Outside run | +0.31 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.26 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.01 pts |
| Play action | -0.14 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.40 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.55 pts |
| Inside run | -0.59 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.23 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -2.15 pts |
| Deep corner | -2.58 pts |
| Spike it | -2.77 pts |
| Deep post | -3.47 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.