Buccaneers vs Falcons — Week 1, 2025
The Buccaneers took over trailing 20-17 with 2:10 left, 1st & 10 at their own 37, 1 timeout in hand, against the Falcons.
What really happened
Final: Buccaneers 23, Falcons 20. Buccaneers won 23-20 — the drive scored.
Buccaneers ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 37, 2:10 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 32.0% for Buccaneers. Our model starts at 33.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:10) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 13-M.Evans to TB 49 for 12 yards (31-X.Watts).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 7-B.Irving to 50 for 1 yard (3-J.Bates).
- (1:38) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete short right to 88-C.Otton [27-J.Pearce].
- (1:32) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 17-S.Shepard to ATL 40 for 10 yards (55-K.Elliss).
- (1:04) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep middle to 2-E.Egbuka for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+2.06 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.68 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +2.06 pts |
| QB keep | +1.81 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.66 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.63 pts |
| Play action | +1.02 pts |
| Quick out | +0.81 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.68 pts |
| Deep post | +0.58 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.30 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.06 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.05 pts |
| Outside run | -0.18 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.38 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.43 pts |
| Inside run | -1.07 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.37 pts |
| Spike it | -2.68 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.