Browns vs Bengals — Week 1, 2025
The Browns took over trailing 17-16 with 1:50 left, 1st & 10 at their own 33, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Bengals.
What really happened
Final: Browns 16, Bengals 17. Bengals won 17-16 — the drive turnover.
Browns ball, down 1 — a field goal wins it. At their own 33, 1:50 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 54.2% for Browns. Our model starts at 51.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:50) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass short left to 85-D.Njoku to CLE 42 for 9 yards (55-L.Wilson).
- (1:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass short left intended for 19-C.Tillman INTERCEPTED by 20-D.Turner at CLE 47. 20-D.Turner to CLE 40 for 7 yards (34-J.Ford).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+1.75 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-3.00 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +1.75 pts |
| Curl route | +1.68 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.59 pts |
| QB keep | +1.54 pts |
| Quick out | +0.83 pts |
| Play action | +0.74 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.68 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.32 pts |
| Outside run | +0.05 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.34 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.59 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.88 pts |
| Inside run | -0.95 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.15 pts |
| Deep post | -1.28 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.45 pts |
| Spike it | -3.00 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.