Bills vs Chiefs — Week 21, 2024
The Bills took over trailing 32-29 with 3:33 left, 1st & 10 at their own 30, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Chiefs.
What really happened
Final: Bills 29, Chiefs 32. Chiefs won 32-29 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Playoff football. Bills ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 30, 3:33 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 31.4% for Bills. Our model starts at 34.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:33) 26-Ty.Johnson right end to BUF 29 for -1 yards (90-C.Omenihu, 23-D.Tranquill).
- (2:55) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen scrambles right tackle to BUF 42 for 13 yards (27-C.Conner).
- (2:25) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep middle to 10-K.Shakir.
- (2:21) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short middle to 1-C.Samuel (90-C.Omenihu).
- (2:17) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 18-A.Cooper to BUF 47 for 5 yards (56-G.Karlaftis).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep right to 86-D.Kincaid [56-G.Karlaftis].
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.44 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.71 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.44 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.25 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.18 pts |
| Play action | +0.99 pts |
| QB keep | +0.72 pts |
| Quick out | +0.52 pts |
| Deep post | +0.50 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.40 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.07 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.06 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.09 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.52 pts |
| Outside run | -0.76 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.86 pts |
| Inside run | -1.46 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.80 pts |
| Spike it | -2.71 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.