Giants vs Eagles — Week 18, 2024
The Giants took over trailing 20-13 with 0:47 left, 1st & 10 at their own 30, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Eagles.
What really happened
Final: Giants 13, Eagles 20. Eagles won 20-13 — the drive turnover.
Giants ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. At their own 30, 0:47 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 6.4% for Giants. Our model starts at 5.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (:47) (Shotgun) 2-D.Lock pass short right to 82-D.Bellinger pushed ob at NYG 34 for 4 yards (42-O.Burks).
- (:41) (Shotgun) 2-D.Lock pass short right to 20-E.Gray ran ob at NYG 38 for 4 yards (42-O.Burks).
- (:36) (Shotgun) 2-D.Lock pass deep left intended for 13-J.Hyatt INTERCEPTED by 21-S.Brown at PHI 33. 21-S.Brown to NYG 46 for 21 yards (75-J.Ezeudu).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Deep post (+0.87 pts), and the weakest was Off-tackle run (-0.76 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Deep post | +0.87 pts |
| Curl route | +0.67 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.44 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.38 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.30 pts |
| QB keep | +0.29 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.29 pts |
| Play action | +0.28 pts |
| Quick out | +0.16 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.13 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.00 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.17 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.23 pts |
| Spike it | -0.60 pts |
| Outside run | -0.63 pts |
| Inside run | -0.73 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -0.76 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.