Saints vs Buccaneers — Week 18, 2024
The Saints took over trailing 27-19 with 1:51 left, 1st & 10 at their own 30, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Buccaneers.
What really happened
Final: Saints 19, Buccaneers 27. Buccaneers won 27-19 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Saints ball, down 8 — touchdown plus the two-pointer ties it. At their own 30, 1:51 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 6.4% for Saints. Our model starts at 5.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:51) (Shotgun) 18-S.Rattler pass short right to 87-F.Moreau to NO 41 for 11 yards (27-Z.McCollum).
- (1:27) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-S.Rattler pass short right to 83-J.Johnson to TB 48 for 11 yards (27-Z.McCollum).
- (1:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-S.Rattler pass short left to 11-C.Wilson to TB 37 for 11 yards (32-J.Hayes).
- (:59) (Shotgun) 18-S.Rattler pass incomplete deep right.
- (:54) (Shotgun) 18-S.Rattler pass incomplete short middle to 83-J.Johnson (54-L.David).
- (:47) (Shotgun) 18-S.Rattler pass incomplete deep right to 85-D.Holker (27-Z.McCollum).
- (:40) (Shotgun) 18-S.Rattler pass incomplete short left to 11-C.Wilson.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Deep post (+0.76 pts), and the weakest was Off-tackle run (-0.74 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Deep post | +0.76 pts |
| Curl route | +0.64 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.42 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.37 pts |
| QB keep | +0.29 pts |
| Play action | +0.26 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.24 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.24 pts |
| Quick out | +0.15 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.12 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.02 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.19 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.24 pts |
| Outside run | -0.58 pts |
| Spike it | -0.65 pts |
| Inside run | -0.70 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -0.74 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.