Ravens vs Steelers — Week 11, 2024
The Ravens took over trailing 18-10 with 3:29 left, 1st & 10 at their own 31, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Steelers.
What really happened
Final: Ravens 16, Steelers 18. Steelers won 18-16 — the drive scored.
Ravens ball, down 8 — touchdown plus the two-pointer ties it. At their own 31, 3:29 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 7.5% for Ravens. Our model starts at 9.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:29) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete short middle to 7-R.Bateman (97-Ca.Heyward).
- (3:25) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete deep right to 4-Z.Flowers [97-Ca.Heyward].
- (3:13) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 7-R.Bateman to BAL 42 for 11 yards (39-M.Fitzpatrick; 31-B.Bishop).
- (2:44) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short left to 80-I.Likely to PIT 47 for 11 yards (41-P.Wilson).
- (2:19) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson sacked at PIT 47 for 0 yards (94-D.Lowry).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 43-J.Hill to PIT 41 for 6 yards (25-D.Elliott, 6-P.Queen).
- (1:26) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short left to 43-J.Hill to PIT 24 for 22 yards (6-P.Queen) [51-Ni.Herbig].
- (1:15) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short left to 16-T.Wallace pushed ob at PIT 16 for 8 yards (31-B.Bishop).
- (1:11) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep right to 4-Z.Flowers for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
- TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 8-L.Jackson pass is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.79 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.05 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.79 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.66 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.54 pts |
| QB keep | +0.41 pts |
| Quick out | +0.32 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.28 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.09 pts |
| Deep post | -0.11 pts |
| Play action | -0.15 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.17 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.34 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.42 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.43 pts |
| Outside run | -0.68 pts |
| Inside run | -0.90 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -0.98 pts |
| Spike it | -1.05 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.