Titans vs Bears — Week 1, 2024
The Titans took over trailing 24-17 with 2:20 left, 1st & 10 at their own 18, 1 timeout in hand, against the Bears.
What really happened
Final: Titans 17, Bears 24. Bears won 24-17 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Titans ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. At their own 18, 2:20 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 9.5% for Titans. Our model starts at 7.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:20) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis pass deep right to 0-C.Ridley pushed ob at TEN 40 for 22 yards (29-T.Stevenson) [99-G.Dexter].
- (2:14) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis pass short right to 2-T.Spears to TEN 42 for 2 yards (53-T.Edwards).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis pass incomplete deep right to 0-C.Ridley.
- (1:56) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis pass short left to 85-C.Okonkwo to TEN 40 for -2 yards (1-J.Johnson).
- (1:15) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis pass deep right intended for 83-T.Boyd INTERCEPTED by 1-J.Johnson [95-D.Walker] at CHI 31. 1-J.Johnson to CHI 40 for 9 yards (85-C.Okonkwo).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Deep post (+0.63 pts), and the weakest was Off-tackle run (-0.96 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Deep post | +0.63 pts |
| Curl route | +0.52 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.31 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.22 pts |
| QB keep | +0.20 pts |
| Play action | +0.12 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.08 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.08 pts |
| Quick out | -0.03 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.06 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.19 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.37 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.44 pts |
| Outside run | -0.75 pts |
| Spike it | -0.82 pts |
| Inside run | -0.91 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -0.96 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.