Dolphins vs Texans — Week 15, 2024
The Dolphins took over trailing 20-12 with 4:20 left, 1st & 10 at their own 22, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Texans.
What really happened
Final: Dolphins 12, Texans 20. Texans won 20-12 — the drive turned it over.
Dolphins ball, down 8 — touchdown plus the two-pointer ties it. At their own 22, 4:20 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 8.0% for Dolphins. Our model starts at 9.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:20) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa sacked at MIA 7 for -10 yards (55-D.Hunter).
- (3:35) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass incomplete short left to 9-J.Smith. Penalty on MIA-55-A.Brewer, Offensive Holding, declined.
- (3:29) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right to 85-R.Cracraft to MIA 13 for 6 yards (20-J.Ward; 24-D.Stingley).
- (3:02) 16-J.Bailey punts 64 yards to HOU 23, Center-46-Z.Triner. 3-T.Dell to HOU 31 for 8 yards (81-D.Smythe).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.63 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.01 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.63 pts |
| Deep post | +0.45 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.42 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.40 pts |
| QB keep | +0.34 pts |
| Play action | +0.22 pts |
| Quick out | +0.13 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.09 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.03 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.02 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.06 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.29 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.32 pts |
| Outside run | -0.59 pts |
| Inside run | -0.80 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -0.88 pts |
| Spike it | -1.01 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.