Rams vs Eagles — Week 20, 2024
The Rams took over trailing 28-22 with 2:23 left, 1st & 10 at their own 18, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Eagles.
What really happened
Final: Rams 22, Eagles 28. Eagles won 28-22 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Playoff football. Rams ball, down 6 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 18, 2:23 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 15.3% for Rams. Our model starts at 9.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:23) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 89-T.Higbee to LA 23 for 5 yards (2-D.Slay).
- (2:07) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 10-C.Kupp to LA 31 for 8 yards (34-I.Rodgers).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete deep left to 10-C.Kupp (33-C.DeJean).
- (1:54) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete deep middle to 17-P.Nacua (2-D.Slay).
- (1:50) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 15-D.Robinson to LA 42 for 11 yards (34-I.Rodgers).
- (1:33) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 17-P.Nacua ran ob at PHI 21 for 37 yards.
- (1:25) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 10-C.Kupp ran ob at PHI 18 for 3 yards.
- (1:19) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 17-P.Nacua pushed ob at PHI 13 for 10 yards (8-C.Gardner-Johnson).
- (1:14) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford sacked at PHI 22 for -9 yards (98-J.Carter).
- (:31) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete deep right to 17-P.Nacua [98-J.Carter].
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Deep post (+0.75 pts), and the weakest was Off-tackle run (-1.16 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Deep post | +0.75 pts |
| Curl route | +0.69 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.43 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.32 pts |
| QB keep | +0.20 pts |
| Play action | +0.18 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.10 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.08 pts |
| Quick out | -0.01 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.05 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.22 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.45 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.60 pts |
| Outside run | -0.88 pts |
| Spike it | -1.08 pts |
| Inside run | -1.10 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.16 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.