Panthers vs Bengals — Week 4, 2024
The Panthers took over trailing 31-24 with 4:42 left, 1st & 10 at their own 8, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Bengals.
What really happened
Final: Panthers 24, Bengals 34. Bengals won 34-24 — the drive turned it over.
Panthers ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. Backed up at their own 8, 4:42 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 14.7% for Panthers. Our model starts at 12.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:42) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass incomplete short middle to 15-J.Mingo.
- (4:39) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass incomplete short middle to 5-Di.Johnson (57-G.Pratt).
- (4:37) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass incomplete deep left to 17-X.Legette.
- (4:31) 10-J.Hekker punts 55 yards to CIN 37, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 15-C.Jones.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was QB sneak (-0.66 pts), and the weakest was Off-tackle run (-1.53 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| QB sneak | -0.66 pts |
| Deep post | -0.71 pts |
| Curl route | -0.77 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.80 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.81 pts |
| Quick out | -0.86 pts |
| QB keep | -0.87 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.88 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.94 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.99 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.08 pts |
| Play action | -1.08 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.16 pts |
| Spike it | -1.34 pts |
| Inside run | -1.39 pts |
| Outside run | -1.41 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.53 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.